KNOWLEDGE

In the eye of the Brexit storm

Morton Fraser Director of Public Law Lynda Towers
Author
Lynda Towers
Director of Public Law
PUBLISHED:
16 April 2019
Audience:
category:
Blog

Is Brexit in the eye of the storm? One of the most telling "place filling" photos on the BBC over the weekend was College Green outside Westminster all churned up with brown grass exposed from underneath what was a short time ago a broadcasting tent village for interviewing passing MPs. 

The world's press has moved on and the days of viewers sitting down to watch a series of often incomprehensible votes in the Commons' Chamber and following the theatre that is Parliament voting are also gone, at least for the present.

The MPs are now off on their Easter break, although their parties in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are facing local elections on 2 May. We may also be in the running for EU elections on 23 May, unless we have left the EU by that date which seems increasingly unlikely. They are probably not going to have a restful break with their feet up and eating chocolate eggs.

So are we any further on in understanding where we are in the great Brexit project? The answer is probably no.

The Withdrawal Agreement remains in the form agreed last December and according to the EU, who have been consistent in this position, the Agreement cannot be reopened. We have some additional letters of interpretation from the EU which do not affect the terms of the Agreement and merely clarify its operation. We also have it from the Attorney General's opinion that these letters of interpretation do not affect the risk perceived by the DUP and some Brexiteers around the arrangements for the backstop on the Northern Irish border which they say is unacceptable. So we are not really any further forward on approval of the Agreement which has now been rejected three times by decreasing, but still very large, majorities in the House of Commons.

The Political Declaration remains with us but a little in the background at present. It fell out of the limelight when the Prime Minister had to adopt a motion with different wording to allow it to go forward in the Commons for the third meaningful vote. It is a fairly vague document and unlike the Agreement it could be amended. However it is supposed to reflect the future negotiations on trade and the ongoing relationship between the UK and the EU. That is difficult to focus on in the absence of a completed Agreement. The Declaration can not however be ignored. The terms of the EU Withdrawal Act 2018 require that it too is voted through by the Commons, unless they change the legislation itself to get rid of that requirement. That seems a difficult course of action at this stage.

The Conservative Party now finds itself in an odd position. Their leader, the Prime Minister has said she will resign if she is successful in getting the Agreement through, but seems to be staying put if she is unsuccessful.  This does have an Alice in Wonderland feel to it. Meanwhile various Tory Ministers are, in the main, denying they are running for the leadership but clearly are: with support teams being set up, photo opportunities arranged and dinners for other MPs being held across Westminster. This could go on until December. This cannot be adding to the stability of the Government.

In the meantime the Government and the Labour Party are continuing discussions around what it would take for Labour to support the Agreement. The talks are still proceeding but there is little so far to suggest that there is any real meeting of minds nor that the Prime Minister's red lines have faded to pink.

So we head off after Easter into more uncertainty around all these issues. We have a new potential exit day of 22 May if it is decided not to hold EU elections in the UK, which seems unlikely at present (but not impossible). If the EU elections are held we have another potential exit date of 31 October. If it is still not settled by then we face another potential extension request to an increasingly tetchy EU until who knows when.

This leaves an electorate heading for the polls in local and EU elections who are increasingly unhappy with our political representatives and their apparent inability to make a decision on how to take Brexit forward in one direction or another. This could be very difficult few weeks for everyone including the new parties who have recently appeared in the Brexit miasma. I suspect we will be soon moving out of the eye of the storm and back into the political wind and rain. Just as the grass begins to recover on College Green the tents could be back to destroy the new growth. There must be a metaphor there….

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