The UK has lost one PM and a new one is now in place. She has clearly stated that "Brexit means Brexit", but perhaps not quite yet.
David Davis MP, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, has said that the Article 50 process will not be triggered until late this year or early 2017. The PM wishes to take the time to consult with the devolved administrations and agree the UK negotiating position before the starting gun.
We are all now experts on Article 50! However a judicial review is in progress in the High Court in England challenging whether the PM can legally trigger Article 50 by exercising the Royal Prerogative or whether the Westminster Parliament needs to pass legislation before it can happen. Mr Davis' Counsel in that context said that the Art 50 process would not be commenced before 2107. There is therefore going to be a hearing on the legal issue before the Lord Chief Justice in October, which will be sufficient time for "the loser" to take the case to the Supreme Court before the end of the year. The constitutional blogs are hot with speculation.
If there were to be legislation in Westminster that raises the question as to whether the Scottish Parliament would also need to be consulted under the Sewel Convention. Any process in either, or both, Parliaments might delay the Article 50 process but need not necessarily seriously derail the UK government's timetable . The effect of politics on the timetable might be more difficult to predict.
Some countries in the EU are still saying Article 50 should be triggered immediately. Others agree some initial thought would be prudent before starting negotiations. In any event all accept the decision to trigger Article 50 lies with the UK.
Scotland and Indyref2
The PM arrived in Edinburgh to meet and talk to the FM the day after she took up her role, which is a strong political message on her part. The PM's position is that Scotland had a vote in 2014, it decided to stay as part of the UK and there is no reason for a further vote now. The UK will negotiate the best deal for the whole of the UK, including Scotland. However Scotland will have a role in those negotiations and the PM will listen to any options for Scotland's future relations with the EU that the FM puts forward.
The FM says that the fact Scotland voted to stay in the EU makes it a change of circumstances such as may justify a new independence referendum. The FM has set up a Standing Council on Europe consisting of experts in legal, financial, business and diplomatic matters to advise her what might be possible. They have started work and there is no end date for that work!
While the message from the PM at present is there is no need for a further referendum The Secretary of State for Scotland and Ruth Davidson, the leader of the conservative party in Scotland, have not taken quite so categorical a position.Many of us are now looking out our old papers written by constitutional experts and politicians alike a few short years ago on who can trigger what kind of referendum, with what question, on what timescale and on whether legislative authority is needed from Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998.
The economic indicators are mixed as to the impact the Brexit vote is having on the economy of the UK and Scotland. As statistics and trends emerge the experts are considering the developing patterns and it is still far from clear what those impacts are and how they will affect future growth and stability. It is clear that indicators over the next few months will give a clearer picture.
Westminster is now in recess and Holyrood has been in recess since the beginning of July. Brussels shuts down for August. Developments are likely to happen away from the legislatures for the time being, and perhaps at a slow pace but we can be sure there will be lots of discussions going on behind closed doors in Whitehall, Edinburgh and Brussels over the summer.