The post election certainties are probably now easy to identify. We have a Conservative UK government with a substantial working majority. The Queen will have to get the Crown out of the Tower, the horses and carriage out the stables and head off to Westminster on Thursday. This is probably sooner than she anticipated last time she made the same journey to read her then Government's Speech. The new version may or may not look much like the last one.
This means we can expect a European Union Withdrawal Agreement Bill at the top of the of the list with a possible introduction into the House of Commons on Friday. This will be a welcome early Christmas present for those on the Conservative benches. For all, whether welcome or not, the passing of this Bill into law will have a major impact on the country we all know and its relations with its immediate neighbours in the EU. It will be interesting to see if the Bill is a dust down job or whether the Prime Minister will have it amended in any way to reflect his new comfortable majority and greater political flexibility. It seems almost certain that the Bill will be passed to allow the UK to leave the EU on 31 January 2020 as promised. There will be other legislation in the Queen's Speech to fulfil at least some of the Prime Minister's election promises. It will be interesting to see what the priorities are but something to appease the north of England is bound to feature.
The less tangible aspects of this election may take longer to kick in but they too will have a huge impact on our lives.
Her Majesty's Opposition is currently in reflective mode, trying to work out how they lost the election so decisively and who will be their new leader and when. Whose fault was it? Did the manifesto work? There is no consensus on any of these questions in the party. It will take months to start to sort it out. The Liberal Democrats have also lost their leader so another election will be needed in that party too. The Scottish National Party had a good Westminster election but they must be aware that the direct influence they enjoyed in the last Parliament will not be available to them this time around. It could be a very frustrating five years ahead of them.
If the Brexit leaving date uncertainty has gone then we still have two new dates in the diary to worry about. This year is not out but many will already be wondering whether the Prime Minister can perform miracles again and agree an EU Trade Deal within less than a year to meet the transitional period expiry on 31 December 2020. It may come as a great surprise to many of those who voted for the Conservative Party to "Get Brexit Done" when they realise that nothing is going to look very different after 31 January and that the UK may not even leave the EU at the end of 2020. It is said there will be no extension but it remains to be seen if that is a tenable position.
The success of the SNP in Scotland has and is about to lead to renewed calls for IndyRef2 before the end of 2020. That is the second uncertain date. The SNP justification and their request to the Prime Minister for a further Referendum are also due to be published towards the end of the week. More Christmas reading! The Prime Minister has already said "no" to the previous versions of this request while the First Minister insists she has a mandate to require a further referendum on Scotland's future. There are threats of court action, but even taking account of the exciting constitutional roller coaster we have found ourselves on in the courts over the last couple of years this looks like a long shot.
Finally, there is a further huge potential change planned by the Prime Minister and his special adviser Dominic Cummings which many people may initially see as irrelevant to them but which could have a huge impact on government in general. A massive and radical reworking of the civil service is envisaged, how it works, who are the civil servants, what do they do daily and how can they serve ministers better. It remains to be seen if this is a politicisation of the currently neutral civil service and the loss of a kind of expertise not found elsewhere. Alternatively it may be just the jolt they need to work better. It remains to be seen.
It is also possible that the structure of the courts and drawing in their powers to constrain or criticise politicians may be within the sight of the radical modernisers as well. As a lawyer you would expect me to defend the independent judiciary. This might be a step too far for modernisers but perhaps it is just as well that the Supreme Court President, Lady Hale and her spider brooch are about to retire.
It is a relief to know there is still lots of politics to fall out about around the family Christmas dinner table and that uncertainty, even of a different kind, is still there to worry about.